Continuous reduction of sugar under the pressure of adjustment sugar raw high side plate

Recently, more and more profits have been fermented and broken down, and the raw sugar index has been constantly refreshing its high point. Previous analyses have also shown that the pressure on the Raw Sugar Index to enter the 12.96-14.10 region to encounter commercial hedging will gradually increase as Brazil's export hedging share is relatively low (below 20%) during the squeeze season. From the position data released by CFTC on Friday, we can see that speculative funds have turned from net to net, and the total position has remained basically unchanged in the process, so its opponent is likely to be a commercial hedge. This week, the crude sugar index approached 14.10 important form of pressure position after the upward trend to high volatility, total position for four consecutive trading days showed a slow increase, high increase stagnation also shows that hedging pressure gradually highlighted, technically speaking, the crude sugar index upward pressure 14.10, its short-term support 13.60, important support 12.96-12.99.

The flow of global sugar trade has changed dramatically in the 2017/18 squeezing season. Pakistan's output has been rising and its exports have reached new highs in recent years. According to relevant data, Pakistan's exports of sugar in the 2017/18 squeezing season reached a record of 1.55 million tons (sugar value), with the first two squeezing seasons'exports of 376,000 tons and 274,000 tons respectively. In recent years, sugar production in Pakistan has increased rapidly, reaching a record level of 7.7 million tons in the 2016/17 crushing season, ranking among the eight largest sugar-producing countries and regions in the world, and declining to 7.2 million tons in the 17/18 crushing season.

Recent bullish returns have flattened for four consecutive trading days as the real has rebounded sharply from its depreciation to a significant position against the dollar at 3.6650, suggesting that the boost to the raw sugar index has weakened in recent trading days; Brazil's production forecast is less than previously estimated and may be squeezed ahead of schedule. India's top four sugar-producing countries and regions are expected to produce less than the previous squeezing season in 2018/19. It is estimated that Brazil, India, the European Union and Thailand, the four major sugar-producing countries and regions, will lose 1.4-15 million tons of production and have a higher squeezing season. The surplus is estimated to be about 11 million tons, indicating that the global 2008/19 squeeze season is likely to be a transition from oversupply to shortage. There is no shortage crisis in the short term because of the large carry-over stocks in this squeeze season.

Domestic spot prices fell after several consecutive trading days stagnation, Nanning intermediaries continued to offer no quotation, Liuzhou intermediaries quoted 5460-5480, increased the lower quotation, Kunming spot quotation 5310-5350, the quotation ceiling was lowered from 5400 to 5350. According to the September import data released on schedule by the Chinese Customs, the import of sugar was 190,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons, an increase of 28,200 tons, and a cumulative import of 197,000 tons from January to September, an increase of 140,400 tons or 7.67 percent.

Zheng Sugar 901 was unable to hit the recent rebound highs after nearly two trading days continued to reduce positions, futures prices also fell to 5167 up and down shocks, 5-1 spreads from - 70 points to 60 points after a brief rebound, the current situation, for short-selling 901 is more cost-effective, for speculative bulls, because the squeeze season can be The transition or termination of excess expectations will give the contract more imagination than 905 or later. Therefore, it is estimated that the 5-1 difference will continue to widen with the full swing of the shift.

Operational suggestions: for example, early recommendation, operation should be low priority admission, not high. Although the performance of Zheng Tang 901 is weak, but it is still a very clear multi-head control of the trend, pay attention to the changes in intra-day positions and the internal band rhythm, there is no obvious position is mainly wait-and-see. As the above analysis, the 5-1 spread is expected to continue to widen after the market, close attention and follow-up, especially 905, if there is a substantial increase in warehousing can follow the transaction.

From: Agricultural Futures Network